Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Second-Order Developments

April 6, 2022
White Papers

This report aims to identify and explain second-order developments that have occurred, or may occur, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The information provided here, coupled with specific Interos Resilience entities, is highlighted so that organizations may take steps to mitigate associated risks.

Key Findings:

  • Turkey has refused to join Western-imposed sanctions against Russia despite having hindered Russian naval presence in the Black Sea. Traffic through the Bosphorus strait has declined since Russia’s invasion due to conflict-related navigational hazards, and Romanian ports are seeing spikes in activity as vessels are rerouted though overall activity is expected to decrease.
  • Significant disruptions are expected for long-haul air freight traffic due to longer flight lead times, increasing jet fuel prices, and logistical implications of European air space restrictions and hazards. Rail freight shipping in Ukraine and neighboring countries remains in flux as it is dictated by evolving international sanctions packages. This is compounded by the integrity of critical infrastructure needed to support rail freight travel.
  • Increased U.S. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production and exports to Europe, the release of strategic reserves, and energy diplomacy have been employed to secure energy supplies and combat rising prices amidst Western announcements to curb imports of Russian energy.

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