The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an unprecedented warning for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting it to potentially be the most active and destructive on record. A combination of exceptionally warm ocean temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn up to 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14, including four to seven major hurricanes, compared to an average of three. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
NOAA’s Alarming Forecast
NOAA’s 2024 guidance is based on several factors:
- Near-record sea surface temperatures: The Atlantic Ocean is experiencing among its warmest temperatures ever recorded, providing an ideal breeding ground for intense storm formation.
- A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina Conditions: La Nina conditions are typically associated with above normal hurricane seasons in the tropical Atlantic
- Low wind shear: Forecasters anticipate lower-than-average vertical wind shear due to a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions, which can disrupt the intensification and tracks of hurricanes, leading to more robust storm systems that can strike the coast.
With these conditions in play, NOAA warns that 2024 could surpass the record-breaking 2005 season, which saw 28 named storms, including the devastating Hurricane Katrina.
The Escalating Toll of Climate Disasters on Supply Chains
The potential impact of an unprecedented hurricane activity is part of a broader trend of escalating extreme weather worldwide, with serious implications for global supply chains and business continuity.
- Last year alone, the United States experienced 28 separate weather disasters that accrued more than a billion dollars in damages for each incident, resulting in a staggering $93 billion in according to NOAA.
- Worldwide, the figure is even higher, with 2023 exceeding $313 billion in economic losses due to extreme weather, according to global insurer Aon. Flooding, severe heat, drought, and wildfires have disrupted global supply chains across various industries, from automotive to food production.
- At a company level, Interos data shows these and other climate-related supply chain disruptions cost organizations $44M annually in lost revenue.
These continued climate shocks have exposed the vulnerabilities of complex and interconnected global supply chains, underscoring the urgency of comprehensive lifecycle risk management to mitigate threats.
Organizations that lack the ability to gauge supplier exposure to hurricanes and other disasters risk paralyzing disruptions that damage brand, reputation, and profitability.
Leveraging Catastrophic Risk Technology
Interos’ groundbreaking Catastrophic Risk technology is an advanced solution to help businesses navigate extreme weather. This AI-powered innovation provides organizations with a comprehensive and continuous view of their extended supply chain, enabling procurement and risk leaders to proactively identify and mitigate risks from hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and other catastrophes.
As an example, New Jersey-based Cooper University Health Care leveraged Interos’ Catastrophic risk intelligence to get ahead of Hurricane Idalia in 2023 as it barreled toward an area in Florida where several of the company’s suppliers are based.
“Interos gave us the ability to track potential impacts before the storm hit,” says Thomas Runkle, VP, Supply Chain. “We identified three suppliers in the path, two of which provide products to our system. We discovered one placed a cutoff on orders with no notice. Having acted on the new risk map data, we reached out in time to get several days of orders placed before they were stopped due to the hurricane.”
By leveraging advanced supply chain risk intelligence and machine learning, Interos’ technology can visualize sub-tier suppliers impacted by a range of hazards, including weather patterns, climate, communication, infrastructure, and healthcare capacity.
This proactive approach empowers businesses to pre-plan months in advance and take necessary steps to minimize disruptions.
Interos’ Catastrophic Risk intelligence provides foundational risk intelligence to fuel key strategies for achieving climate-resilient supply chains, including:
- Mapping to Diversify the Supplier Base: Explore alternative suppliers in different geographic regions to reduce reliance on a single location or region prone to climate disasters.
- Real-time Risk Identification to Support Business Continuity Plans: Develop and regularly update comprehensive business continuity plans that outline strategies for maintaining operations during and after hurricanes, floods, wildfires, or other natural disasters.
- The World’s Largest Knowledge Graph to Enhance Inventory Management: Understand your extended supply chain to support maintaining strategic inventory levels of critical components and materials to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions.
As the 2024 hurricane season approaches and the threat of climate disasters escalates, it is crucial for businesses to prioritize supply chain resilience and embrace AI-risk capability like Interos’ Catastrophic Risk Visibility technology.
By taking proactive measures and leveraging advanced lifecycle risk intelligence, organizations can better navigate the challenges posed by extreme weather events and ensure the continuity of their operations, while mitigating the staggering economic toll of supply chain disruptions.
