“It’s Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better” Navigating Supply Chain Geopolitical Risks: Insights from National Security Experts

August 4, 2024

by Alea Marks & Dianna ONeill

Interos’s new executive insights series, “Voices of Innovation,” hosted a critical conversation on escalating geopolitical threats to supply chain security.

The inaugural session brought together former NSA Director and US Cyber Command head, Admiral Mike Rogers (Ret.)  and Andrea Little Limbago, Ph.D., Head of Applied AI, Interos, and a frequent speaker on geopolitical risk and cybersecurity.

Five Key Quotes

1-Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

In an era of global interconnectedness, supply chains have become increasingly complex and efficient. However, this integration introduces acute new vulnerabilities. Today’s multinational ecosystems can easily encompass thousands of sub-tier suppliers, fueling continued supply chain disruptions that cost the global economy $3 trillion in annual losses.

Admiral Rogers highlighted this double-edge sword, noting the ripple effect across interconnected systems:

“There’s definitely been a tradeoff,” Rogers observed. “The downside is we have to acknowledge, as we can see with CrowdStrike being the latest issue, that we’ve got fundamental vulnerability inherent in the system.”

2-Geopolitics and Corporate Boards

Given the global footprint of many large enterprises, Admiral Rogers highlighted the growing concern among corporate boards regarding geopolitical risk:

“I spend a lot of time talking to corporate boards on geopolitics. They are trying to understand, the world around me seems to be changing. That has implications for my business model, and it has implications for my liability and responsibility.”

Rogers emphasized that companies are increasingly recognizing the need to better understand the global context and for their supply chain operations, identify risks, and develop strategies for risk mitigation and prioritization.

3-Criminals Targeting Supply Chains

In discussing evolving digital cyber threats, Admiral Rogers expressed surprise at the recent trend of criminals targeting digital supply chains:

“I never thought I would see criminals go into supply chain, supply chain route in terms of an attack vector. That was true until about 15 months ago, but we’re now seeing criminals going down this route. So, organizations now are routinely asking themselves, do I understand the dimensions of my supply chain? And what steps am I taking to try to mitigate that risk?”

4-Proactive Risk Mitigation

Anticipating and preparing for potential disruptions emerged as a critical theme. Rogers emphasized the value of proactive planning and regular practice in enhancing an organization’s resilience:

“The more time you put up front in thinking through and anticipating, the better your performance in crisis,” he advised. “I can’t anticipate every scenario, but the more I train, the more I simulate, the more I practice, the more efficient and effective I’ll be in responding to disruption and generating resilience.”

5-Evolving National Security Landscape

The conversation addressed the changing nature of national security, which now encompasses economic security and digital advantage. Rogers highlighted how this shift is leading to increased government involvement in previously private sector domains.

“Governments are getting much more directive and much more broadly involved,” Rogers observed. He noted a significant shift in cybersecurity strategy: “The biggest shifts in [cybersecurity] strategy were, number one, it’s no longer the individual user to hold accountable – it’s the entities that are in the best position to achieve a broad impact.”

Interos Watchtower™: A Strategic Solution

Rogers and Little Limbago also discussed Interos Watchtower™, AI-driven technology that provides personalized risk models to defend against geopolitical threats. Rogers noted the criticality of mapping and prioritizing threats, emphasizing:

“We have got to get to prioritization. Because if we can’t prioritize, if we can’t figure out the best use of limited resources, we got real problems.”

Watchtower highlights vulnerable suppliers based on potential business impact, allowing organizations to prioritize and remediate regulatory, cyber, government intervention, and foreign ownership risks, among others.

Looking Ahead

Admiral Rogers concluded with a sobering yet hopeful outlook:

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better.” However, he noted that more businesses and senior leaders are acknowledging the challenge, stating, “You can’t solve a problem if you don’t acknowledge it.”

The conversation made clear the pervasive nature of geopolitical supply chains impacts. From trade tensions to shifting nation-state alliances, a host of changing global dynamics present new opportunities for disruption. Organizations that fail to  adopt a proactive, technology-driven approach to these realities risk falling behind.

Technologies like Interos Watchtower™ are a significant advancement, offering the personalized, actionable intelligence necessary to enhance supply chain strength and security in a volatile  landscape.

Learn more HERE.

 

 

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